Us-China Economic and Trade Agreement
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Lawrence J. Lau, an economics professor in Hong Kong, argues that one of the main causes of the trade war is the growing struggle between China and the United States for global economic and technological dominance. He says, “It is also a reflection of the rise of populism, isolationism, nationalism and protectionism almost everywhere in the world, including in the United States.” [268] In August 2019, Roger Johnson of the National Farmers Union — which represents about 200,000 family farmers, ranchers, and fishermen — said the trade war was causing problems for U.S. farmers, pointing in particular to the decline in U.S. soybean exports. to China. [288] [best source needed] In the same month, the American Farm Bureau Federation — which represents large agribusiness companies — said the announcement of new tariffs “signals more problems for U.S. agriculture.” [289] Analysts have speculated that the trade war could affect the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as tariffs have negatively impacted farmers, a key electorate for Trump. [241] [242] Analysts have also speculated on how the trade war has affected Xi Jinping in terms of domestic political pressures he has faced. [242] First, if the United States takes action, China can either accept the remedy, along with a promise not to retaliate, or withdraw from phase one agreement.
The latter option would be more harmful than the remedy itself. From a purely economic point of view, all the objectives achieved under the agreement are better than the alternative of returning to trade wars with China. Assessing progress towards the objectives of the first phase of trade in goods requires information from both U.S. export statistics and Chinese import statistics, as stated in Article 6.2.6 of the agreement in Chapter 6: “Official Chinese trade data and official U.S. trade data will be used to determine whether this chapter has been implemented.” One implication is that there are two monthly data sets that need to be tracked (Chinese imports and US exports). Second, there are two different annual and therefore monthly targets, as the starting level of Chinese imports in 2017 differs from the starting level of US exports in 2017. Finally, the products covered by the purchase obligations are listed at the 4, 6, 8 or 10 digit level in Annex 6.1 to the Agreement; these are then mapped to US or Chinese trade statistics for 2017 and 2020. Starting with our October 26, 2020 report, we included the U.S. export product 8800 (in addition to the 8802 aircraft) in the “covered manufacturing” category and the total number and removed it from the “not covered” category. In September 2019, U.S.
manufacturers reduced capital investment and delayed hiring due to uncertainty caused by the trade war. [225] In the short term, the United States and China will continue to exempt certain goods and services from the injurious tariffs and other trade practices of both countries on an ad hoc basis. While this continues, Washington should give diplomacy and negotiations another attempt. When he supported tariffs as president, he said China would cost the U.S. economy hundreds of billions of dollars a year because of unfair trade practices. After imposing tariffs, he denied entering a trade war, saying that “the trade war was lost many years ago by the stupid or incompetent people who represented the United States.” He said the U.S. has a trade deficit of $500 billion a year, with intellectual property (IP) theft costing an additional $300 billion. “We can`t let this continue,” he said. [30] [31] Former White House adviser Jim Schultz said that “the United States, through several presidential administrations – Clinton, Bush and Obama – naively looked the other way, while China cheated to gain an unfair advantage in the international trade market.” [32] On the 45.
At the G7 summit, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said: “We don`t like tariffs overall.” [336] An article in ABC stated that U.S. allies warned Trump during the summit of his trade war with China, but Trump said he was not under any pressure from his allies over the trade war. [336] European Council President Donald Tusk said the trade war risked causing a global recession. [337] It is clear that measures such as voluntary bilateral export restrictions, orderly marketing agreements, and similar measures limiting imports of certain products are prohibited by WTO rules. . A Member shall not seek, accept or maintain voluntary export restrictions, orderly marketing arrangements or other similar measures on the export or import side. This includes actions taken by a single member, as well as actions taken under agreements, arrangements and arrangements entered into by two or more members. Such a measure, which enters into force on the date of entry into force of the WTO Agreement, will be brought into conformity with that Agreement or phased out.
China has agreed to increase the purchase of some U.S. goods and services by a total of $200 billion in 2020 and 2021 from 2017 levels. This PIIE chart tracks China`s monthly purchases of U.S. products covered by the agreement, based on data from China Customs (Chinese imports) and the U.S. Census Bureau (U.S. exports). These purchases are then compared to the annual targets of the legal agreement, which are prorated on a monthly basis on a seasonally adjusted basis on two basic scenarios (see methodology below). As stated in the legal agreement, one baseline scenario for 2017 allows the use of U.S. export statistics and the other allows the use of Chinese import statistics. .